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Friday, January 05, 2007
You kept hearing it throughout the preseason: The Patriot League is better top to bottom this year. This week's HOOP TIME NOTEBOOK asks the simple question: is it really?
Sure seemed that way at the beginning of December when league teams were 29-25 against non-conference Division I foes, with a conference RPI of 14.
But over the last two weeks, league teams have gone 10-20, dropping their RPI as a conference to 19, one spot behind the Ivy League, which won the season series between the two leagues again this year. The PL actually held a 7-3 lead in the series heading into December before the Ivies won 9 of the last 10.
Granted the conference RPI for the Patriot League has improved in each of the past four seasons, from 26 in 2003 to 23 in 2004 to 21 last season to 19 this. But the league's measuring stick has long been the Ivy League and the Ancient 8 has a conference RPI of 18, not surprising since the Ivies did so well head-to-head against the Patriots.
On that basis it is hard to say the league is much better. On the other hand, if you look strictly at RPI, the bottom of the league does appear to be significantly stronger. Nobody is ranked below 300 in the RPI and only teams are above 251. Last season four teams finished above 250.
The top of the Patriot League, though, is off. Bucknell was No. 42 last season. This season only one PL team, Holy Cross (97) has an RPI better than 100. Bucknell has returned to the pack. Holy Cross is good, but banged up and not very deep. There appears to be more parity in the league this season, but it would probably be a stretch to say the league is actually better top to bottom. Thus far it seems more like the top and the bottom are meeting in the middle.
THE LEAGUE AT A GLANCE: Here is a team-by-team breakdown of the season to date for league teams.
AMERICAN (8-6, RPI 211)
Best win: 81-74 over 6-6 Loyola (RPI 222) -- AU's only win over a team with an RPI better than 260
Worst loss: 81-79 (OT) at 6-11 (4-11 vs. D-I) Longwood (266) less than a month after beating the Lancers by 11 at home
Biggest surprise: Yet to come; we predict Georgetown transfer Cornelio Guibunda's raw athloetic talent will allow him some impressive performances off the bench in league play
Biggest disappointment: Big things have been expected from 6-11 senior center Paulius Joneliunas since he transferred from South Carolina prior to his junior season but thus far he has not delivered on those expectations.
ARMY (10-5, 8-5 vs. D-I, RPI 211)
Best win: 62-53 over 7-6 Hartford (175)
Worst loss: Home vs. 5-7 Cornell (213)
Biggest surprise: Army's record and RPI. This is the first time since the 2002 season the Black Knights RPI is out of the 300+ range
Biggest disappointment: Senior center Jimmy Sewell who has gone from being a starter as a sophomore to a 6-11 pine jockey with 5 DNPs thus far this season. For a team with only two freshmen taller than 6-7 on the roster, Sewell's failure to develop has been a big (no pun intended) negative.
BUCKNELL (6-7, RPI 134)
Best win: 68-67 at 10-4 Xavier (47) ... it's also the league's best win
Worst loss: 50-48 to a Central Arkansas team with one other D-I win and an RPI (298) out of the 300s only because of beating Bucknell ... it's the league's worst loss
Biggest surprise: The emergence of sophomore guard Justin Castleberry as a key part of Pat Flannery's rotation
Biggest disappointment: Take your pick: Chris McNaughton's sub-50 percent shooting and sub-double figures scoring; The students (and townies) who failed to show up for the Northern Iowa game at Sojka; Donald Brown's inability to adjust to playing the three, which has hurt the Bison on defense by taking a tough defender (Darren Mastropaolo) out of the starting lineup. Brown has been Bucknell's best player since moving to the four, but without him matching up on opponent three-men and sans Mastropaolo, the Bison are not as strong defensively; the late-game collapse against Albany in the season opener; or (our pick) the loss to Central Arkansas.
COLGATE (5-8, 4-8 D-I, RPI 282)
Best win: The Raiders really have no good wins. As close as they get is a 53-47 win over a Leon Pattman-less Dartmouth team that looks better than it was at the time due to Dartmouth's improvement since getting Pattman back in the lineup
Worst loss: 52-36 at 6-7 (5-7 vs. D-I) Arizona State (278)
Biggest surprise: The inability of a team full of alleged shooters to shoot the ball. Colgate has been under 40 percent from the field each of its last six games and on the season is shooting 40.4 percent against D-I teams
Biggest disappointment: That 4-8 record against D-I teams. Colgate is either doing less with more than anybody in the league, or its talent level has been tremendously overrated
HOLY CROSS (9-6, RPI 97)
Best win: 65-57 over 7-5 Siena (78)
Worst loss: 67-61 to 7-7 Niagara, a team with a misleading 244 RPi due to the absence of star Carron Fisher early in the season. Niagara is 6-1 since his return. The disappointment is not losing to Niagara as much as it is the way it happened -- blowing an 11-point, second-half lead
Biggest surprise: Kyle Cruze's emergence as a starter on the wing after the injuries to Pat Doherty and Lawrence Dixon
Biggest disappointment: Those injuries, along with a season-ending injury to freshman Andrew Keister
LAFAYETTE (6-9, 4-9 D-I, RPI 251)
Best win: 76-70 at 4-8 (3-8 D-I) Wagner (283)
Worst loss: 86-51 at 5-9 UMBC (204)
Biggest surprise: 6-4 junior Matt Betley's emergence as the team's top scorer after switching to the four, where he way undersized
Biggest disappointment: The stress fracture in Jamaal Hilliard's foot that is expected to cost him at least 2-4 weeks.
LEHIGH (5-11, 3-11 D-I, RPI 288)
Best win: 72-63 over Sacred Heart (6-7, 145)
Worst loss: 71-55 at Quinnipiac (334), a team with one other win over D-I opposition
Biggest surprise: Jason Mgebroff's strong showing before being sidelined with stress fractures. The 6-11 senior, whose sophomore and junior seasons were all but a washout, was averaging 10.8 ppg and 5.8 rpg before he got hurt.
Biggest disappointment: Megebroff's stress fractures, which will force him to miss 6-8 weeks
NAVY (10-5, 8-5 D-I, RPI 159)
Best win: 87-76 over 5-8 Stony Brook (187)
Worst loss: 74-59 at home to Yale (248), which has just one other D-I win
Biggest surprise: The play of 6-10 freshman Trey Stanton, who has started every game and is averaging 8.8 ppg
Biggest disappointment: In the preseason, Navy coach Billy Lange said 6-9 junior center Ben Biles was "going to have to give us some time." Biles has only played in four games, with just four rebounds and a turnover to break up the zeroes after his name on the stat sheet.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: Not a lot of changes from what we predicted when we wrote the Blue Ribbon previews in the summer, though one team has dropped like a rock:
1) Bucknell -- Bison remain the favorite for the regular season title, but a two- or even three-way tie for the regular season would not be a surprise.
2) Holy Cross -- If healthy, HC would probably have been mentioned ahead of Bucknell. If Pat Doherty and Lawrence Dixon come back and contribute, they might be the favorite come tourney time even if they are the No. 2 seed
3) American -- The Eagles are deep, experienced and posess a lot of offensive weapons. Still need the big men to play big when they face quality big men and the whole team needs to be tougher defensively
4) Army -- Defensive effort was never a problem. Size and offense was. Jarell Brown and Matt Bell give the Black Knights as good a scoring duo in the backcourt as there is in the league. Freshman Chris Walker has given them a presence in the paint.
5) Lehigh -- With Mgebroff healthy, the Mountain Hawks would rank a spot, maybe two, higher. If he regains his early season form when he returns, Lehigh could be the tournament dark horse.
6) Navy -- Billy Lange's team has made great strides but is still missing the inside punch needed to take the pressure off the perimeter shooters.
7) Lafayette -- Another team that is improved, but still lacks an inside presence. Matt Betley will not be a matchup problem for guys like Donald Brown, Bryan White, Kendall Chones or Alex Vander Baan; but they will probably be a matchup problem for him.
8) Colgate -- after two seasons of overrating the underachieving Raiders, we are ready to concede we may have been wrong about the level of talent in Hamilton -- on the floor and on the sidelines.
MIDSEASON HONORS: Player of the year: Keith Simmons, HC -- nobody is playing better right now
Rookie of the Year: Marquis Hall, Leh -- the Mountain Hawks freshman point guard tops a very strong group of freshmen
Coach of the Year: Has anybody done a better job than Jim Crews? We don't think so.
Non-Con All PL team: (the five best players, regardless of position) Simmons, Andre Ingram (AU), Jose Olivero (Leh), Donald Brown (BU), Jarell Brown (Army)
FRIDAY READAROUND:
Army, Navy are biggest surprises in Patriot non-conference games (Morning Call)
Leopards lo ok to leap to the top (Express-Times)
Hawks ready to reach their potential (Express-Times)
Navy ship ahead of schedule under Lange (Daily Item)
Sure seemed that way at the beginning of December when league teams were 29-25 against non-conference Division I foes, with a conference RPI of 14.
But over the last two weeks, league teams have gone 10-20, dropping their RPI as a conference to 19, one spot behind the Ivy League, which won the season series between the two leagues again this year. The PL actually held a 7-3 lead in the series heading into December before the Ivies won 9 of the last 10.
Granted the conference RPI for the Patriot League has improved in each of the past four seasons, from 26 in 2003 to 23 in 2004 to 21 last season to 19 this. But the league's measuring stick has long been the Ivy League and the Ancient 8 has a conference RPI of 18, not surprising since the Ivies did so well head-to-head against the Patriots.
On that basis it is hard to say the league is much better. On the other hand, if you look strictly at RPI, the bottom of the league does appear to be significantly stronger. Nobody is ranked below 300 in the RPI and only teams are above 251. Last season four teams finished above 250.
The top of the Patriot League, though, is off. Bucknell was No. 42 last season. This season only one PL team, Holy Cross (97) has an RPI better than 100. Bucknell has returned to the pack. Holy Cross is good, but banged up and not very deep. There appears to be more parity in the league this season, but it would probably be a stretch to say the league is actually better top to bottom. Thus far it seems more like the top and the bottom are meeting in the middle.
THE LEAGUE AT A GLANCE: Here is a team-by-team breakdown of the season to date for league teams.
AMERICAN (8-6, RPI 211)
Best win: 81-74 over 6-6 Loyola (RPI 222) -- AU's only win over a team with an RPI better than 260
Worst loss: 81-79 (OT) at 6-11 (4-11 vs. D-I) Longwood (266) less than a month after beating the Lancers by 11 at home
Biggest surprise: Yet to come; we predict Georgetown transfer Cornelio Guibunda's raw athloetic talent will allow him some impressive performances off the bench in league play
Biggest disappointment: Big things have been expected from 6-11 senior center Paulius Joneliunas since he transferred from South Carolina prior to his junior season but thus far he has not delivered on those expectations.
ARMY (10-5, 8-5 vs. D-I, RPI 211)
Best win: 62-53 over 7-6 Hartford (175)
Worst loss: Home vs. 5-7 Cornell (213)
Biggest surprise: Army's record and RPI. This is the first time since the 2002 season the Black Knights RPI is out of the 300+ range
Biggest disappointment: Senior center Jimmy Sewell who has gone from being a starter as a sophomore to a 6-11 pine jockey with 5 DNPs thus far this season. For a team with only two freshmen taller than 6-7 on the roster, Sewell's failure to develop has been a big (no pun intended) negative.
BUCKNELL (6-7, RPI 134)
Best win: 68-67 at 10-4 Xavier (47) ... it's also the league's best win
Worst loss: 50-48 to a Central Arkansas team with one other D-I win and an RPI (298) out of the 300s only because of beating Bucknell ... it's the league's worst loss
Biggest surprise: The emergence of sophomore guard Justin Castleberry as a key part of Pat Flannery's rotation
Biggest disappointment: Take your pick: Chris McNaughton's sub-50 percent shooting and sub-double figures scoring; The students (and townies) who failed to show up for the Northern Iowa game at Sojka; Donald Brown's inability to adjust to playing the three, which has hurt the Bison on defense by taking a tough defender (Darren Mastropaolo) out of the starting lineup. Brown has been Bucknell's best player since moving to the four, but without him matching up on opponent three-men and sans Mastropaolo, the Bison are not as strong defensively; the late-game collapse against Albany in the season opener; or (our pick) the loss to Central Arkansas.
COLGATE (5-8, 4-8 D-I, RPI 282)
Best win: The Raiders really have no good wins. As close as they get is a 53-47 win over a Leon Pattman-less Dartmouth team that looks better than it was at the time due to Dartmouth's improvement since getting Pattman back in the lineup
Worst loss: 52-36 at 6-7 (5-7 vs. D-I) Arizona State (278)
Biggest surprise: The inability of a team full of alleged shooters to shoot the ball. Colgate has been under 40 percent from the field each of its last six games and on the season is shooting 40.4 percent against D-I teams
Biggest disappointment: That 4-8 record against D-I teams. Colgate is either doing less with more than anybody in the league, or its talent level has been tremendously overrated
HOLY CROSS (9-6, RPI 97)
Best win: 65-57 over 7-5 Siena (78)
Worst loss: 67-61 to 7-7 Niagara, a team with a misleading 244 RPi due to the absence of star Carron Fisher early in the season. Niagara is 6-1 since his return. The disappointment is not losing to Niagara as much as it is the way it happened -- blowing an 11-point, second-half lead
Biggest surprise: Kyle Cruze's emergence as a starter on the wing after the injuries to Pat Doherty and Lawrence Dixon
Biggest disappointment: Those injuries, along with a season-ending injury to freshman Andrew Keister
LAFAYETTE (6-9, 4-9 D-I, RPI 251)
Best win: 76-70 at 4-8 (3-8 D-I) Wagner (283)
Worst loss: 86-51 at 5-9 UMBC (204)
Biggest surprise: 6-4 junior Matt Betley's emergence as the team's top scorer after switching to the four, where he way undersized
Biggest disappointment: The stress fracture in Jamaal Hilliard's foot that is expected to cost him at least 2-4 weeks.
LEHIGH (5-11, 3-11 D-I, RPI 288)
Best win: 72-63 over Sacred Heart (6-7, 145)
Worst loss: 71-55 at Quinnipiac (334), a team with one other win over D-I opposition
Biggest surprise: Jason Mgebroff's strong showing before being sidelined with stress fractures. The 6-11 senior, whose sophomore and junior seasons were all but a washout, was averaging 10.8 ppg and 5.8 rpg before he got hurt.
Biggest disappointment: Megebroff's stress fractures, which will force him to miss 6-8 weeks
NAVY (10-5, 8-5 D-I, RPI 159)
Best win: 87-76 over 5-8 Stony Brook (187)
Worst loss: 74-59 at home to Yale (248), which has just one other D-I win
Biggest surprise: The play of 6-10 freshman Trey Stanton, who has started every game and is averaging 8.8 ppg
Biggest disappointment: In the preseason, Navy coach Billy Lange said 6-9 junior center Ben Biles was "going to have to give us some time." Biles has only played in four games, with just four rebounds and a turnover to break up the zeroes after his name on the stat sheet.
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: Not a lot of changes from what we predicted when we wrote the Blue Ribbon previews in the summer, though one team has dropped like a rock:
1) Bucknell -- Bison remain the favorite for the regular season title, but a two- or even three-way tie for the regular season would not be a surprise.
2) Holy Cross -- If healthy, HC would probably have been mentioned ahead of Bucknell. If Pat Doherty and Lawrence Dixon come back and contribute, they might be the favorite come tourney time even if they are the No. 2 seed
3) American -- The Eagles are deep, experienced and posess a lot of offensive weapons. Still need the big men to play big when they face quality big men and the whole team needs to be tougher defensively
4) Army -- Defensive effort was never a problem. Size and offense was. Jarell Brown and Matt Bell give the Black Knights as good a scoring duo in the backcourt as there is in the league. Freshman Chris Walker has given them a presence in the paint.
5) Lehigh -- With Mgebroff healthy, the Mountain Hawks would rank a spot, maybe two, higher. If he regains his early season form when he returns, Lehigh could be the tournament dark horse.
6) Navy -- Billy Lange's team has made great strides but is still missing the inside punch needed to take the pressure off the perimeter shooters.
7) Lafayette -- Another team that is improved, but still lacks an inside presence. Matt Betley will not be a matchup problem for guys like Donald Brown, Bryan White, Kendall Chones or Alex Vander Baan; but they will probably be a matchup problem for him.
8) Colgate -- after two seasons of overrating the underachieving Raiders, we are ready to concede we may have been wrong about the level of talent in Hamilton -- on the floor and on the sidelines.
MIDSEASON HONORS: Player of the year: Keith Simmons, HC -- nobody is playing better right now
Rookie of the Year: Marquis Hall, Leh -- the Mountain Hawks freshman point guard tops a very strong group of freshmen
Coach of the Year: Has anybody done a better job than Jim Crews? We don't think so.
Non-Con All PL team: (the five best players, regardless of position) Simmons, Andre Ingram (AU), Jose Olivero (Leh), Donald Brown (BU), Jarell Brown (Army)
FRIDAY READAROUND:
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