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Saturday, January 06, 2007
After two months of getting ready, the only games that will really count are about to begin.
Forget that preseason talk about this being the Patriot League's year for two bids. Those possibilities dimmed when Bucknell lost its opener at Albany and any flickers of hope were extinguished by Holy Cross' agonizing shorthanded road trip through Syracuse, Dayton and Duke.
There is not a team in the league with a prayer of an at large bid, so the league championship will be, as it always has been, for all the marbles.
With this year's funky Division Three style all games on home courts tournament, that makes the regular season even more important. Just look at Lehigh to understand the significance. The Mountain Hawks can't win a road game, but are withing 0.4 seconds and one point of being unbeatable at home. Think anybody wants to visit Stabler in March with their season on the line?
With the kind of parity there seems to be in the league this year, a team that defends its own house and goes .500 on the road ought to stand a pretty fair chance of hosting at least one tournament game. It might not take a lot more than that and some tiebreaker magic to give a team the home court throughout the tournament.
Even though late in the season folks tend to forget what happened in January, the games played today will have just as much bearing on tournament seeding as the games played on the final weekend of the regular season.
Today's games will also start to establish the league's pecking order. If American wants to be a contender, it is going to have to be able to win games like it faces tonight, on the road against a shorthanded but still tough Lehigh team. If Navy wants to prove its nice start is for real, there is no better place to do it than on two-time defending champ Bucknell's floor. Army can prove it is ready to escape the league cellar with a win at Colgate.
We'll start the season in Easton, with a Holy Cross-Lafayette women's-men's double dip. A full gameblog for the men's game won't be possible due to deadline constraints for the Worcester T&G, but we will try to post some halftime notes, with the full game story and postgame audio following the men's game.
Might even pop in over at Stabler on the way back from Easton to catch some of that American at Lehigh game, listening to Navy at Bucknell on Sirius 147.
Here is a quick look at today's league openers:
Army at Colgate, 1 p.m.: (matchup) Most places a hostile home crowd is the reason behind the home court advantage. In Hamilton, it seems the opposite. Opposing teams seem to struggle to get into the game when playing in a glorified high school gym in front of an audience (dare you call it a crowd?) so small you can count the noses during a timeout. That should be no problem for Army, which is used to small crowds.
This is Army's chance to make a "No basement for us" kind of statement. It's Colgate's chance for a fresh start after a horrid non-conference run. These two met in West Point to open league play last season, with Colgate a 71-58 winner. We'll see how far Army has come since then.
Holy Cross at Lafayette, 4 p.m.: (matchup) Shorthanded Holy Cross might be even shorter-handed for this one. Junior off guard Kyle Cruze suffered a scratched cornea in Wednesday's win at Boston U. With a short rotation due to a rash of injuries, Ralph Willard has been employing a lot of 2-3 zone of late. It will be interesting to see if Lafayette, which has a host of perimeter snipers, can shoot the Crusaders out of that zone D.
Expect Holy Cross to look inside to Tim Clifford early and often in this one. Lafayette has no match for the 6-10 junior. If Clifford plays well, it will open a lot up for Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas. But Clifford has been spotty all season and an off night could mean a much-tougher-than-anticipated battle for HC, especially if Lafayette starts knocking down the threes.
Navy at Bucknell, 7 p.m.: (matchup) This is the Mids chance to show its 10-5 start is for real. Navy's record certainly looks better than Bucknell's 6-7 start, but two of the wins came against Division Three schools and only two came against teams with RPIs in the top 200 (Stony Brook -- 181, William and Mary -- 192). Navy has show it can win outside of Alumni Hall, going 3-3 on the road in non-conference play. But this won't be a trip to NJIT or Longwood. Bucknell is riding a 21-game league win streak and has not lost a league game at home since March of 2003, winning 26 in a row at home against league foes. Navy has never won in Sojka Pavilion and has not won in Lewisburg since February of 2001. But this is not the same Bucknell team that set those standards. this game will tell us a lot about both teams. Is Navy legit? Are the Bison at home still the gold standard in the league despite their sub .500 non-conference record?
The matchups on the perimeter might be a slight edge to Navy if their jump shots are falling. But 6-10 freshman Trey Stanton will have his hands full against Bucknell senior Chris McNaughton and the Mids don't have any real match for Donald Brown. All in all, an interesting opener for both.
American at Lehigh, 7:30 p.m.: (matchup) Lehigh has been near perfect at home (5-1, the loss coming by 1 point). But without Jason Mgebroff, the Mountain Hawks could be over-matched by American's bigs inside. Lehigh will need a big game from Jose Olivero, who is due after two straight 7-point showings. Prior to those two off nights, Olivero had 20 straight double figures games. While AU seems to have the personnel edge, it still has not proven it is mentally tough enough to go into a hostile place and grind out a win, which is what it takes to win on the road in conference play. AU ended a four-game skid with a win Tuesday at home over Saint Francis (Pa.). They will need to play even better to extend their modest win streak to two.
BONUS LINKS: Knights (10-5) among early surprises as league schedule opens (Times Herald-Record)
Navy clashes with establishment (Annapolis Capital)
Time to break down the fun conferences (Kyle on ESPN.com)
Forget that preseason talk about this being the Patriot League's year for two bids. Those possibilities dimmed when Bucknell lost its opener at Albany and any flickers of hope were extinguished by Holy Cross' agonizing shorthanded road trip through Syracuse, Dayton and Duke.
There is not a team in the league with a prayer of an at large bid, so the league championship will be, as it always has been, for all the marbles.
With this year's funky Division Three style all games on home courts tournament, that makes the regular season even more important. Just look at Lehigh to understand the significance. The Mountain Hawks can't win a road game, but are withing 0.4 seconds and one point of being unbeatable at home. Think anybody wants to visit Stabler in March with their season on the line?
With the kind of parity there seems to be in the league this year, a team that defends its own house and goes .500 on the road ought to stand a pretty fair chance of hosting at least one tournament game. It might not take a lot more than that and some tiebreaker magic to give a team the home court throughout the tournament.
Even though late in the season folks tend to forget what happened in January, the games played today will have just as much bearing on tournament seeding as the games played on the final weekend of the regular season.
Today's games will also start to establish the league's pecking order. If American wants to be a contender, it is going to have to be able to win games like it faces tonight, on the road against a shorthanded but still tough Lehigh team. If Navy wants to prove its nice start is for real, there is no better place to do it than on two-time defending champ Bucknell's floor. Army can prove it is ready to escape the league cellar with a win at Colgate.
We'll start the season in Easton, with a Holy Cross-Lafayette women's-men's double dip. A full gameblog for the men's game won't be possible due to deadline constraints for the Worcester T&G, but we will try to post some halftime notes, with the full game story and postgame audio following the men's game.
Might even pop in over at Stabler on the way back from Easton to catch some of that American at Lehigh game, listening to Navy at Bucknell on Sirius 147.
Here is a quick look at today's league openers:
Army at Colgate, 1 p.m.: (matchup) Most places a hostile home crowd is the reason behind the home court advantage. In Hamilton, it seems the opposite. Opposing teams seem to struggle to get into the game when playing in a glorified high school gym in front of an audience (dare you call it a crowd?) so small you can count the noses during a timeout. That should be no problem for Army, which is used to small crowds.
This is Army's chance to make a "No basement for us" kind of statement. It's Colgate's chance for a fresh start after a horrid non-conference run. These two met in West Point to open league play last season, with Colgate a 71-58 winner. We'll see how far Army has come since then.
Holy Cross at Lafayette, 4 p.m.: (matchup) Shorthanded Holy Cross might be even shorter-handed for this one. Junior off guard Kyle Cruze suffered a scratched cornea in Wednesday's win at Boston U. With a short rotation due to a rash of injuries, Ralph Willard has been employing a lot of 2-3 zone of late. It will be interesting to see if Lafayette, which has a host of perimeter snipers, can shoot the Crusaders out of that zone D.
Expect Holy Cross to look inside to Tim Clifford early and often in this one. Lafayette has no match for the 6-10 junior. If Clifford plays well, it will open a lot up for Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas. But Clifford has been spotty all season and an off night could mean a much-tougher-than-anticipated battle for HC, especially if Lafayette starts knocking down the threes.
Navy at Bucknell, 7 p.m.: (matchup) This is the Mids chance to show its 10-5 start is for real. Navy's record certainly looks better than Bucknell's 6-7 start, but two of the wins came against Division Three schools and only two came against teams with RPIs in the top 200 (Stony Brook -- 181, William and Mary -- 192). Navy has show it can win outside of Alumni Hall, going 3-3 on the road in non-conference play. But this won't be a trip to NJIT or Longwood. Bucknell is riding a 21-game league win streak and has not lost a league game at home since March of 2003, winning 26 in a row at home against league foes. Navy has never won in Sojka Pavilion and has not won in Lewisburg since February of 2001. But this is not the same Bucknell team that set those standards. this game will tell us a lot about both teams. Is Navy legit? Are the Bison at home still the gold standard in the league despite their sub .500 non-conference record?
The matchups on the perimeter might be a slight edge to Navy if their jump shots are falling. But 6-10 freshman Trey Stanton will have his hands full against Bucknell senior Chris McNaughton and the Mids don't have any real match for Donald Brown. All in all, an interesting opener for both.
American at Lehigh, 7:30 p.m.: (matchup) Lehigh has been near perfect at home (5-1, the loss coming by 1 point). But without Jason Mgebroff, the Mountain Hawks could be over-matched by American's bigs inside. Lehigh will need a big game from Jose Olivero, who is due after two straight 7-point showings. Prior to those two off nights, Olivero had 20 straight double figures games. While AU seems to have the personnel edge, it still has not proven it is mentally tough enough to go into a hostile place and grind out a win, which is what it takes to win on the road in conference play. AU ended a four-game skid with a win Tuesday at home over Saint Francis (Pa.). They will need to play even better to extend their modest win streak to two.
BONUS LINKS:
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