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Friday, January 26, 2007
Looking back, looking ahead
Remember Bill Raynor and Sal Mentesana? Raynor coached at Holy Cross prior to Ralph Willard. Mentesana was Billy Taylor's predecessor at Lehigh.

Raynor is still coaching hoops; he heads the program at someplace called Mass bay Community College. Mentesana is on the side of a milk carton, at least as far as a quick Google on his name is concerned.

Sal was a clothes horse, better known for his success in those best dressed coaches playoffs than the success of his teams at Lehigh. Likewise, there is a reason Raynor is now coaching at a community college. Raynor took over for George Blaney and after two winning seasons, went into a three-straight losing seasons spiral that ended with his firing. Mentesana took over a horrible program at Lehigh and arguably made it worse, barely winning 25 percent of his games in six seasons.

You might wonder: Why the history lesson? What does this have to do with tonight's Lehigh at Holy Cross game? (9 p.m., ESPNU -- Harrisburg area fans can catch it at Damon's off I-81 at Progress Ave.)

Good question. Simple answer: just to give you a little perspective on how this series has gone over the years, especially in games played in Worcester. Over the years, these two have met 21 times in the Hart Center. Lehigh has won but three of those 21 games.

Raynor and Mentesana? They were the coaches the last time Lehigh won in Worcester. That was back in the 1997-98 seasons. Lehigh's Mountain Hawk mascot was still in diapers Want more perspective? Lehigh senior Jose Olivero and Holy Cross senior Keith Simmons would have been in seventh grade the last time the Mountain Hawks won there.

Since then, Holy Cross has won 10 in a row over Lehigh in Worcester, including tournament wins there the last two seasons. That underscores the importance of this game from Lehigh's perspective. With two league losses already, for Lehigh to have a realistic chance of gaining the regular season title and the homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs, they must win tonight.

Win here, and win out -- not totally unrealistic since Lehigh will have the two teams it has lost to, Army and Bucknell, and Holy Cross all at home in Stabler Arena in the second half of the conference schedule. The Mountain Hawks have lost just once in Stabler this season, and that came at the last second on a disputed call. Add the expected return of center Jason Mgebroff and Lehigh's second half prospects look even brighter.

Lose here, and the Mountain Hawks almost certainly will need a lot of help to get to the top of the Patriot League heap. Even if it holds serve in Stabler the second go-round, three losses would mean they need two others to knock off Holy Cross. Realistically, one of those two could come when Holy Cross is at Bucknell. But that would mean Lehigh needs somebody else to beat the Bison.

Sure there is a strong possibility, maybe even a probability, that one of the top two will stumble elsewhere on the road - just look how tough it was for Holy Cross to get past the gang-that-can't-shoot-straight in Hamilton Tuesday night. But the Mountain Hawks are no lock on the road, either. They already lost at Army and have just one win outside of Stabler all season.

While we are dealing in reality here, we should probably mention that breaking that 10-game losing streak in Worcester tonight might not be impossible, but no sane person would put money on the Hawks without being spotted significant points.

With Mgebroff out, the formula for beating Lehigh is pretty obvious. Cut off the headband and the body dies too. Bucknell was the latest team to shut down Jose Olivero, holding him to 9 points Tuesday night. It was the fourth time Olivero has been held below double figures this season. The Hawks are 0-4 in those games.

Marquis Hall is having a splendid freshman season, but he is not the kind of guy who can carry a team. Not yet, anyhow. Kyle Neptune is also capable of putting up nice numbers. But Olivero is the engine that drives the Lehigh machine, and without Mgebroff's inside presence, that is not enough -- not against teams with legitimate big men.

Skinny Phil Anderson has done a decent job playing out of position in Mgebroff's absence. But Anderson has struggled against teams with true centers, and Holy Cross' Tim Clifford is as true a center as there is in the league. Clifford might not be as quick as Bucknell's Chris McNaughton, but he is probably even more a nightmare matchup for Anderson, given his sheer size and strength.

Lehigh has a guy big enough to matchup with Clifford in 7-foot sophomore John Gourlay. But Gourlay is still very raw, and no match for Clifford. The over-under on Gourlay fouling out if he plays against Clifford is probably less than 10 minutes.

Holy Cross' depth up front does not stop with Clifford. Even if Clifford gets in foul trouble himself, sophomore Greg McCarthy and freshman Eric Meister both would still give the Crusaders and edge in the post.

That inside dominance will make it awfully tough for Olivero to get off -- especially against the Crusaders zone, which makes getting to the basket mighty tough. Olivero shoots just 30 percent from three-point range.

Lehigh's best hope probably lies in turning it into a low-scoring defensive struggle. If the Hawks can keep it close enough to have a shot at stealing it at the end, they could pull off the upset.

That is not beyond the realm of possibility. As well as Holy Cross has played, they have had a knack for letting folks either stick around, or get back into games. Three of HC's last four wins were by 5 points or less, including one in overtime -- the Saders' third OT win of the season.

Is an upset possible? Definitely. Is it likely? Probably not.
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Published at 7:33 AM by Hoop Time.
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