Co-Conspirators
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Talk Hoops
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
Official Sites
• •
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Conference play begins in less than two weeks, and early indications are this should be one of the most competitive seasons in Patriot League history.
There have been plenty of seasons of parity in the league. In 1994, four teams finished the regular season at 9-5 in conference play, resulting in a pair of semifinals decided by a total of 5 points (including one overtime game) and a final that Navy won at home by 2 (over Colgate the year before Adonal Foyle arrived). That was the only season a team with five league losses managed to claim the top seed for the tournament. (An interesting note: That season Navy placed nobody on the first or second All-Patriot teams despite being the top seed).
The next two seasons Colgate won the conference, but each year the Raiders finished with three losses in conference play and needed a tiebreaker to gain top seed for the postseason.
In 2002, American won the regular season despite four conference setbacks, with four other teams over .500 in league play.
Looking around the league, it would not be surprising to see this year's regular season champs with four or even five losses. With the marked improvement at both of the service academies, Lafayette is the closest thing to a gimme in the league, and Fran O'Hanlon's Leopards have always had a knack, even in their down years, for pulling off an upset or two at home.
Here are a few team-by-team thoughts, done in alphabetical order (so please Lehigh fans, no hate mail for listing the Mountain Hawks seventh):
AMERICAN: A veteran team with a proven star in Andre Ingram, a talented point guard in Derrick Mercer, scoring off the bench in Arvydas Eitutavicius and as much size up front as anybody in the league, the Eagles 7-4 start has done nothing to take away from their preseason status as a contender.
Paulius Joneliunas and Brayden Billbe already can claim the titles of the league's biggest frontcourt and the frontcourt with the most unusual names. If they can also rank among the league's toughest, this could be teh Eagles year.
Cornelio Guibunda is as athletic as they come in the Patriot League, but still lacks polish. It will be interesting to see how far his athleticism can take him in league play. If he is a factor off the bench, AU's threesome could potentially challenge Bucknell's trio of Chris McNaughton, Donald Brown and Darren Mastropaolo as the league's best three-man rotation in the frontcourt.
ARMY: Dramatically better, the 9-3 Black Knights have already won more games than they did the last three seasons combined. Jarrell Brown might be the best offensive player in the league. Matt Bell is healthy and back to form. And freshman Chris Walker's 6-8 presence in the middle gives Army the legitimate post player it has lacked in Jim Crews first four seasons. It's worth noting that although Walker is a freshman, he had the equivalent of a redshirt season at Army's prep school last year. Walker is one of seven players on the Army roster who have spent a year at USMAPS, making the Black Knights a more mature team than the roster might indicate at first glance.
No doubt the 9-3 record reflects more than just Army being better. The wins have come against a mix of weak Division I and mediocre Division III sides. Still, Army will be a tough out this season, especially in Christl Arena.
BUCKNELL: The Bison need to sweep two games at Marist's tournament this weekend to avoid entering conference play below .500. That will be a challenge; Marist, Bucknell's likely opponent in the final (assuming the Bison get past a very weak Central Arkansas team in the opener), is unbeaten at home, 8-3 with two wins over top 100 RPI teams.
Even a game below .500 in the preseason, the Bison are probably still the favorite to win the league. The level of competition Bucknell has faced is clearly a notch above most of the rest of the league and all but two of their non-conference games have been away from home. Bucknell's wins over George Mason and Xavier are easily the league's best wins to date.
That said, this is definitely not the Bucknell juggernaut of the past two seasons. They have been inconsistent on both sides as Pat Flannery has struggled to find a set rotation. The inability of Donald Brown to adjust to playing the three has kept Flannery from being able to put his best five players on the floor at the same time, a problem that has been exacerbated by guys like Chris McNaughton and Abe Badmus getting into foul trouble. Badmus also has to begin contributing more on offense. He has the ability to get into the paint with dribble penetration, but has seemed to lack the confidence to finish when he gets there. If Badmus would start getting himself to the foul line instead of sending opponents there, it would be a huge plus.
COLGATE: Home losses to sub-.500 teams like Stony Brook and Canisius have folks around the league wondering if it is possible they have misjudged the level of talent on the Raiders roster. The injury loss of a guy like Kyle Roemer certainly has not helped. But Roemer's spot on the wing was a spot where Colgate seemed to have a lot of depth. In fact, in the preseason the bigger problem facing coach Emmett Davis seemed to be finding enough minutes for all his perimeter talent.
On paper, Colgate seemed to have the talent to contend for the league title. On the floor they have seemed like it will be a challenge for them to finish ahead of the service academies in the league standings. Until somebody other than Jon Simon starts to perform well on a consistent basis, Colgate will continue to struggle.
HOLY CROSS: When healthy, the Crusaders starting five is as good as any in the league. But Holy Cross has not been healthy and the lack of depth exposed by the latest rash of injuries is taking its toll. At this point HC seems two healthy players away from being the league favorite and a Keith Simmons injury away from going the complete opposite direction.
Pat Doherty will return during conference play, but how effective will he be down the stretch after missing almost all of last season to his foot problems and now a month or so of this season to the broken hand. Lawrence Dixon's knee has his status for the remainder of the season in doubt. The only good news about freshman Andrew Keister's stress fracture is that he has only played four games and should be eligible for a medical redshirt.
Simmons' sprained knee should be O.K for conference play if he does not reinjure it, but the reappearance of his cramping problems in the 'Saders last game (George Mason) is a huge concern. With the limited bench Ralph Willard has available, anything that greatly limits Simmons' minutes will be a real problem. And then there is Torey Thomas, who is playing 40 minutes a game on a knee not fully recovered from off-season surgery.
As long as Simmons and Thomas can still walk, Holy Cross will remain one of the top teams in the league. Without them, things could get ugly in a hurry in Worcester.
LAFAYETTE: Scholarships finally arrived in Easton, but it will take more than one recruiting class for the 'Pards to catch up to folks who have had them for years. Six-seven freshman Jesper Andersson has emerged as a threat on the wing, adding to a plethora of outside shooters available to O'Hanlon, but up front the Leopards are as thin as cheap wrapping paper. Matt Betley has given a yeoman's effort as an undersized (6-4) four, but how he will hold up to the constant banging against bigger, stronger guys over the course of the season remains to be seen.
At their best, Lafayette can rain threes. When they don't fall though, the 'Pards are in trouble because they just are not big enough or strong enough to get it done on the boards, as evidenced by the way they have been outrebounded to the tune of almost 10 per game.
The good news for Lafayette fans: Wait until next year actually means something for the 'Pards, who ought to quickly become competitive when O'Hanlon has the talent to compete.
LEHIGH: Just when it seemed Jason Mgebroff was finally realizing the potential he showed as a freshman, the Mountain Hawks big man got hurt. He will return around the second half of the conference schedule, but without him, a young Lehigh team will struggle to compete inside with some of the better frontcourts in the league.
Lucky for Lehigh, those "better frontcourts" are not a commodity much of the conference is blessed with. Luckier still, it was not Jose Olivero who got hurt. At the risk of seeming redundant, as long as the Mountain Hawks have Olivero, they always will have a chance of shooting down any team in the league.
Freshman point guard Marquis Hall has more than lived up to high expectations, giving Lehigh, when Mgebroff is healthy, as good a first five as there is in the league. Depth remains a big question mark though. Add in an inability to win on the road and the Mountain Hawks appear to have their work cut out for them if they want to remain ahead of Army and navy, ;et alone if they want to challenge the league's top teams.
NAVY: Like Army, the Mids are markedly better. Also like Army, their nine non-conference wins thus far have included two over Division III foes and none against any real quality foes. Six of the seven wins over D-Is came against teams with RPI's over 200.
The similarities with their archrivals don't end there. Like Army, Navy has benefited from the presence of a freshman in the post. In this case it is 6-10 Trey Stanton who has filled the void in the middle.
Greg Sprink continues to show he is one fo the league's top offensive threats. Kaleo Kina and Corey Johnson combine with Sprink to form a very good backcourt.
Alumni Hall continues to be one of the league's toughest road venues. The Midshipmen are unlikely to contend for the championship, but they likely will have a lot to say about who will.
All in all, it is shaping up like a very competitive year for a conference that certainly appears to be on its way up.
There have been plenty of seasons of parity in the league. In 1994, four teams finished the regular season at 9-5 in conference play, resulting in a pair of semifinals decided by a total of 5 points (including one overtime game) and a final that Navy won at home by 2 (over Colgate the year before Adonal Foyle arrived). That was the only season a team with five league losses managed to claim the top seed for the tournament. (An interesting note: That season Navy placed nobody on the first or second All-Patriot teams despite being the top seed).
The next two seasons Colgate won the conference, but each year the Raiders finished with three losses in conference play and needed a tiebreaker to gain top seed for the postseason.
In 2002, American won the regular season despite four conference setbacks, with four other teams over .500 in league play.
Looking around the league, it would not be surprising to see this year's regular season champs with four or even five losses. With the marked improvement at both of the service academies, Lafayette is the closest thing to a gimme in the league, and Fran O'Hanlon's Leopards have always had a knack, even in their down years, for pulling off an upset or two at home.
Here are a few team-by-team thoughts, done in alphabetical order (so please Lehigh fans, no hate mail for listing the Mountain Hawks seventh):
AMERICAN: A veteran team with a proven star in Andre Ingram, a talented point guard in Derrick Mercer, scoring off the bench in Arvydas Eitutavicius and as much size up front as anybody in the league, the Eagles 7-4 start has done nothing to take away from their preseason status as a contender.
Paulius Joneliunas and Brayden Billbe already can claim the titles of the league's biggest frontcourt and the frontcourt with the most unusual names. If they can also rank among the league's toughest, this could be teh Eagles year.
Cornelio Guibunda is as athletic as they come in the Patriot League, but still lacks polish. It will be interesting to see how far his athleticism can take him in league play. If he is a factor off the bench, AU's threesome could potentially challenge Bucknell's trio of Chris McNaughton, Donald Brown and Darren Mastropaolo as the league's best three-man rotation in the frontcourt.
ARMY: Dramatically better, the 9-3 Black Knights have already won more games than they did the last three seasons combined. Jarrell Brown might be the best offensive player in the league. Matt Bell is healthy and back to form. And freshman Chris Walker's 6-8 presence in the middle gives Army the legitimate post player it has lacked in Jim Crews first four seasons. It's worth noting that although Walker is a freshman, he had the equivalent of a redshirt season at Army's prep school last year. Walker is one of seven players on the Army roster who have spent a year at USMAPS, making the Black Knights a more mature team than the roster might indicate at first glance.
No doubt the 9-3 record reflects more than just Army being better. The wins have come against a mix of weak Division I and mediocre Division III sides. Still, Army will be a tough out this season, especially in Christl Arena.
BUCKNELL: The Bison need to sweep two games at Marist's tournament this weekend to avoid entering conference play below .500. That will be a challenge; Marist, Bucknell's likely opponent in the final (assuming the Bison get past a very weak Central Arkansas team in the opener), is unbeaten at home, 8-3 with two wins over top 100 RPI teams.
Even a game below .500 in the preseason, the Bison are probably still the favorite to win the league. The level of competition Bucknell has faced is clearly a notch above most of the rest of the league and all but two of their non-conference games have been away from home. Bucknell's wins over George Mason and Xavier are easily the league's best wins to date.
That said, this is definitely not the Bucknell juggernaut of the past two seasons. They have been inconsistent on both sides as Pat Flannery has struggled to find a set rotation. The inability of Donald Brown to adjust to playing the three has kept Flannery from being able to put his best five players on the floor at the same time, a problem that has been exacerbated by guys like Chris McNaughton and Abe Badmus getting into foul trouble. Badmus also has to begin contributing more on offense. He has the ability to get into the paint with dribble penetration, but has seemed to lack the confidence to finish when he gets there. If Badmus would start getting himself to the foul line instead of sending opponents there, it would be a huge plus.
COLGATE: Home losses to sub-.500 teams like Stony Brook and Canisius have folks around the league wondering if it is possible they have misjudged the level of talent on the Raiders roster. The injury loss of a guy like Kyle Roemer certainly has not helped. But Roemer's spot on the wing was a spot where Colgate seemed to have a lot of depth. In fact, in the preseason the bigger problem facing coach Emmett Davis seemed to be finding enough minutes for all his perimeter talent.
On paper, Colgate seemed to have the talent to contend for the league title. On the floor they have seemed like it will be a challenge for them to finish ahead of the service academies in the league standings. Until somebody other than Jon Simon starts to perform well on a consistent basis, Colgate will continue to struggle.
HOLY CROSS: When healthy, the Crusaders starting five is as good as any in the league. But Holy Cross has not been healthy and the lack of depth exposed by the latest rash of injuries is taking its toll. At this point HC seems two healthy players away from being the league favorite and a Keith Simmons injury away from going the complete opposite direction.
Pat Doherty will return during conference play, but how effective will he be down the stretch after missing almost all of last season to his foot problems and now a month or so of this season to the broken hand. Lawrence Dixon's knee has his status for the remainder of the season in doubt. The only good news about freshman Andrew Keister's stress fracture is that he has only played four games and should be eligible for a medical redshirt.
Simmons' sprained knee should be O.K for conference play if he does not reinjure it, but the reappearance of his cramping problems in the 'Saders last game (George Mason) is a huge concern. With the limited bench Ralph Willard has available, anything that greatly limits Simmons' minutes will be a real problem. And then there is Torey Thomas, who is playing 40 minutes a game on a knee not fully recovered from off-season surgery.
As long as Simmons and Thomas can still walk, Holy Cross will remain one of the top teams in the league. Without them, things could get ugly in a hurry in Worcester.
LAFAYETTE: Scholarships finally arrived in Easton, but it will take more than one recruiting class for the 'Pards to catch up to folks who have had them for years. Six-seven freshman Jesper Andersson has emerged as a threat on the wing, adding to a plethora of outside shooters available to O'Hanlon, but up front the Leopards are as thin as cheap wrapping paper. Matt Betley has given a yeoman's effort as an undersized (6-4) four, but how he will hold up to the constant banging against bigger, stronger guys over the course of the season remains to be seen.
At their best, Lafayette can rain threes. When they don't fall though, the 'Pards are in trouble because they just are not big enough or strong enough to get it done on the boards, as evidenced by the way they have been outrebounded to the tune of almost 10 per game.
The good news for Lafayette fans: Wait until next year actually means something for the 'Pards, who ought to quickly become competitive when O'Hanlon has the talent to compete.
LEHIGH: Just when it seemed Jason Mgebroff was finally realizing the potential he showed as a freshman, the Mountain Hawks big man got hurt. He will return around the second half of the conference schedule, but without him, a young Lehigh team will struggle to compete inside with some of the better frontcourts in the league.
Lucky for Lehigh, those "better frontcourts" are not a commodity much of the conference is blessed with. Luckier still, it was not Jose Olivero who got hurt. At the risk of seeming redundant, as long as the Mountain Hawks have Olivero, they always will have a chance of shooting down any team in the league.
Freshman point guard Marquis Hall has more than lived up to high expectations, giving Lehigh, when Mgebroff is healthy, as good a first five as there is in the league. Depth remains a big question mark though. Add in an inability to win on the road and the Mountain Hawks appear to have their work cut out for them if they want to remain ahead of Army and navy, ;et alone if they want to challenge the league's top teams.
NAVY: Like Army, the Mids are markedly better. Also like Army, their nine non-conference wins thus far have included two over Division III foes and none against any real quality foes. Six of the seven wins over D-Is came against teams with RPI's over 200.
The similarities with their archrivals don't end there. Like Army, Navy has benefited from the presence of a freshman in the post. In this case it is 6-10 Trey Stanton who has filled the void in the middle.
Greg Sprink continues to show he is one fo the league's top offensive threats. Kaleo Kina and Corey Johnson combine with Sprink to form a very good backcourt.
Alumni Hall continues to be one of the league's toughest road venues. The Midshipmen are unlikely to contend for the championship, but they likely will have a lot to say about who will.
All in all, it is shaping up like a very competitive year for a conference that certainly appears to be on its way up.
Help Hoop Time
Archive
• • November 2005
• December 2005
• January 2006
• February 2006
• March 2006
• April 2006
• May 2006
• June 2006
• July 2006
• August 2006
• September 2006
• October 2006
• November 2006
• December 2006
• January 2007
• February 2007
• March 2007
• April 2007
• May 2007
• June 2007
• July 2007
• August 2007
• September 2007
• October 2007
• November 2007
Feeds
©2006 Hoop Time. All rights reserved.