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Friday, January 06, 2006
Our old buddy Kyle is doing some over at the WWLIS today, picking his favorites to win 22 mid-major conferences.
Here is what he had to say about the Patriot League:
For starters, the only reason there has been any media circus in Lewisburg has been because Villanova and Saint Joseph's came to town, bringing a host of Philly media along. The only other out of the ordinary media attention in Lewisburg has been the WWLIS crew shooting the two The Season segments and the AP guy from State College who has been escaping the horror show that is Penn State hoops by covering a few games at Bucknell.
We doubt McNaughton is going to post any 30-point, 15-rebound efforts. Against some of the quality non conference competition Bucknell has faced, McNaughton saw single coverage and, as anybody who watched him last season already knew he could, he took advantage of it. His 29-point effort against Villanova is an example of that. But McNaughton's career-best in rebounding is 11 boards and we doubt he is going to pull 15 against Holy Cross, whose big men might be struggling on offense, but are still decent rebounders.
Our biggest issue with Kyle's post is the anointing of Holy Cross as the only team close to Bucknell. On paper, when healthy, that would seem true. In reality, though, health issues would seem to leave the Crusaders with too many unanswered questions heading into conference play to make an argument they pose more of a threat to Bucknell than Colgate, Lehigh or anybody else, other than Army and maybe Lafayette.
Take a look at Ralph Willard's over on CoachRalph.com if you don't want to take our word for it. Willard reports that, as many suspected, sophomore point guard Pat Doherty is being shut down for the season. That is just the tip of the health troubles iceberg for HC.
Reports Willard:
The short numbers of healthy bodies has limited what Willard has been able to do in practice, slowing the development of freshmen that the Crusaders need to give them key minutes off the bench.
In short, if Hamilton's back, Simmons' cramping or any of Thomas' nagging injuries force them out of the lineup. Holy Cross' situation goes from shaky to worse.
Given those problems, along with the lack of any other contenders making an impression in non-conference play, it is impossible to anoint any team as Bucknell's biggest hurdle at this point.
Maybe after a couple weeks of league play the picture will clear. More likely this will be one of those rock, paper, scissors kind of years where most of the league takes turns beating each other.
For now though, the only things that seem certain heading into conference play are that Bucknell is pretty good and Army is just the opposite.
Here is what he had to say about the Patriot League:
Bucknell (9-3)There is no arguing with his picking Bucknell. Even the most die-hard purple people seem to agree the Bison are the favorites. But some of the analysis we have to take issue with.
The media circus in Lewisburg, Pa., will undoubtedly die down in the aftermath of the local team's 84-50 thrashing at Duke. The truth, however, is that Monday's result means absolutely nothing in the long run. Bucknell has all the RPI points they need to assure a low-teen tournament seed (although a Bracket Buster at Nevada would be nice) in a conference that might be as close to a foregone conclusion as any in the country. The only other Last Amateur that's even close to the same galaxy as Bucknell is Holy Cross, and the Crusaders' key weakness (inside play) just happens to correspond to the Bison's key strength (6-10 Chris McNaughton). If the two teams do end up meeting thrice, he might be in for a few 30-point, 15-rebound stat lines.
For starters, the only reason there has been any media circus in Lewisburg has been because Villanova and Saint Joseph's came to town, bringing a host of Philly media along. The only other out of the ordinary media attention in Lewisburg has been the WWLIS crew shooting the two The Season segments and the AP guy from State College who has been escaping the horror show that is Penn State hoops by covering a few games at Bucknell.
We doubt McNaughton is going to post any 30-point, 15-rebound efforts. Against some of the quality non conference competition Bucknell has faced, McNaughton saw single coverage and, as anybody who watched him last season already knew he could, he took advantage of it. His 29-point effort against Villanova is an example of that. But McNaughton's career-best in rebounding is 11 boards and we doubt he is going to pull 15 against Holy Cross, whose big men might be struggling on offense, but are still decent rebounders.
Our biggest issue with Kyle's post is the anointing of Holy Cross as the only team close to Bucknell. On paper, when healthy, that would seem true. In reality, though, health issues would seem to leave the Crusaders with too many unanswered questions heading into conference play to make an argument they pose more of a threat to Bucknell than Colgate, Lehigh or anybody else, other than Army and maybe Lafayette.
Take a look at Ralph Willard's over on CoachRalph.com if you don't want to take our word for it. Willard reports that, as many suspected, sophomore point guard Pat Doherty is being shut down for the season. That is just the tip of the health troubles iceberg for HC.
Reports Willard:
As we prepare for Lafayette tomorrow, our health is still a major concern. Torrey is still bothered by the groin strain and thigh bruise. Kevin Hamilton and Kevin Hyland are going to the chiropractor today as both are having back problems. Lawrence still is fighting the asthma and Keith, though improving is still a question mark, game to game.The medical situation hurts the Crusaders in a lot of ways. With no backup at the point, Thomas has to play 40 minutes per game, or close to it. Asking him to scurry about the floor trapping and pressuring on defense is out of the question since HC cannot afford to have him on the bench for a breather.
The short numbers of healthy bodies has limited what Willard has been able to do in practice, slowing the development of freshmen that the Crusaders need to give them key minutes off the bench.
In short, if Hamilton's back, Simmons' cramping or any of Thomas' nagging injuries force them out of the lineup. Holy Cross' situation goes from shaky to worse.
Given those problems, along with the lack of any other contenders making an impression in non-conference play, it is impossible to anoint any team as Bucknell's biggest hurdle at this point.
Maybe after a couple weeks of league play the picture will clear. More likely this will be one of those rock, paper, scissors kind of years where most of the league takes turns beating each other.
For now though, the only things that seem certain heading into conference play are that Bucknell is pretty good and Army is just the opposite.
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