Friday, January 06, 2006
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Bucknell at Navy, 2 p.m.: NOTE: This is a 2 p.m. start, not 1 p.m. as listed on the league's Web site.

To a lot of folks, there is no better road trip in the league than a visit to Annapolis. The weather is always a few degrees warmer there and the Maryland crab soup at Chick and Ruth's can't be beat. Down the street from Chick and Ruth's is an excellent cigar shop, and whether you choose a bench by City Dock, or one by the water outside Alumni Hall, the combination of the scenery and the mild climate makes for a relaxing interlude between lunch and the game.

Don't try to convince Bucknell of any of this though. Annapolis has never been a hospitable place for the Bison, who have won just four times in 30 games all-time at Navy. That includes a 1-14 record in their last 15 visits to Annapolis, the only win coming on Valentines Day 2004 when BU squeaked out a 54-52 victory.

It would not be hard to build a consensus that this year should be a different story. Certainly on paper the Bison are, by far, the superior side. But they were better on paper when they visited Navy last season, and still ended up on the short end of a 66-52 score.

With eight of the 10 Bison that played in that loss returning to the scene, Pat Flannery doesn't need to give his team any history lessons. And with the Bison coming off two straight road losses, he won't need to worry about overconfidence of complacency.

But Flannery will need to worry about the officiating. Traditionally Navy has gotten a very kind whistle at home. Navy likes to play a very physical game and if the guys in stripes decide to employ the old playground rule -- no blood no foul -- it will help the Midshipmen even the field a little.

In that loss in Annapolis last season, the Bison were whistled for 28 personals. Navy for just 19. Five Bison -- Chris McNaughton, Charles Lee, Donald Brown, Tarik Viaer McClymont and now-graduated Chris Niesz-- finished with four fouls.

Bucknell should have a tremendous advantage up front, especially with Navy playing without senior forward Matt Fannin, who injured a knee in the Midshipmen's loss Tuesday to UMBC.

The Mids frontcourt deficiencies were obvious in that loss. UMBC outscored Navy in the paint 52-22.

But if McNaughton is limited to 20 minutes of action, the way he was the last time Bucknell played at Navy, Bucknell's inside advantage will be considerably lessened.

The Bison are also better in the backcourt, but not by nearly as wide a margin as they are in the frontcourt. Navy's starting guards are all capable of scoring, especially 6-4 sophomore Greg Sprink, who has averaged 24 points over the last four games, including a 34-point outburst against Brown and 30 in the loss to UMBC. Sprink averaged 15.5 ppg in two contests against Bucknell last season.

The other two starters at guard for the Mids are freshmen. That could be a huge problem for the Mids. Kaleo Kina has shifted from the shooting guard spot to the point, filling in for the injured Corey Johnson, and the 6-2 freshman has been turnover prone, averaging 5 per game on the season. He has had more turnovers than assists in 8 of the 12 games he has played (not all at the point).

Those turnover woes have come against a schedule that has not been particularly challenging. Two of Navy's opponents have been Division 3 teams. Six of the Division 1 foes have RPIs higher than 200 and only three are in the top 100. Citadel is the only team with a winning record Navy has beaten, and that hardly should count given Citadel's pathetic excuse for a schedule.

How well Kina handles the kind of pressure he will face matched against Bucknell point guard Abe Badmus, last season's league defensive player of the year, will go a long way towards deciding if Navy can compete with the Bison.

Johnson, who has been out since Nov. 27 with a knee injury, returned to practice this week. How much he will be able to play against Bucknell is not known. How much he will be able to contribute after a six-week layoff if he does play is another question.
Bucknell notes | Navy notes | USA Today matchup | Gametracker | Bucknell Radio

Lehigh at American, 2 p.m.: Before the season started, this one was circled as a game that would tell us a lot about how the league might shake out. Since then, Lehigh has lost the services of Joe Knight, leaving any accurate take on how the Mountain Hawks might fare in the conference on hold until he returns.

A Lehigh win in Bender, sans Knight, would not bode well for AU. But an AU win really won't give anyone much of a read on anything.

Certainly American should be the favorite here. Lehigh's 7-8 record might look better on paper than AU's 4-8 mark, but take away Lehigh's two wins over Division 3 teams and the records are pretty much even and AU has certainly played a better schedule (AU strength of schedule ranks at 103, second in the league, Lehigh at 234).

While Lehigh folks like to point to their loss at Washington as a positive because they held the high-scoring Huskies to 54 points, it is worth pointing out that American actually played Washington just as tough (both lost by 17) and that was AU's first game of the season. Since then the Eagles' freshmen have 11 more games of experience and 6-11 South Carolina transfer Paulius Joneliunas has become eligible.

Joneliunas has not exactly been a force down low for AU so far. He is averaging just 2.7 points and 2.3 rebounds per game. But given the year-long layoff and his limited minutes as he plays into game shape, those numbers compare pretty well with any of Lehigh's big men. Meanwhile 6-10 junior Brayden Billbe has developed into a solid 9.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg contributor.

With Knight, Lehigh might hold a slight edge in the backcourt. Without him, American's rotation of starters Andre Ingram (12.7 ppg), freshman point guard Derrick Mercer (4 assists per game), Arvydas Eitutavicius (10.2 ppg), Sekou Lewis, Linas Lekavicius (last year's starter at the point) and freshman shooter Garrison Carr would seem better, and certainly deeper, than Lehigh's backcourt, which has little depth behind starters Jose Olivero (17.4 ppg) and Kyle Neptune (12.4 ppg).

As a team, Lehigh is shooting under 40 percent (39.4). So is AU (39.2 percent). That should make for an ugly, low scoring game, with rebounds at a premium. And that, in turn, ought to favor American with its better big men.
AU notes | Lehigh notes | USA Today matchup | AU radio

Colgate at Army, 1 p.m.: Colgate's only wins away from Hamilton this season have come on neutral floors. On their most recent road trip they lost to previously winless Stony Brook. Still, it is hard to imagine the Raiders losing to Army, which teased folks by doubling the number of wins they had against Division I foes last season in the season's first month (2 compared to 1 all of last season). But since an upset win at Columbia on Dec. 2, the Black Knights have lost 5 straight (not counting a win over the Sea Scouts), sliding back to their familiar spot in the bottom five of the RPI rankings.

A Colgate loss would be the most embarrassing setback for any league team since Navy lost to Army (or Division 3 Gettysburg) last season.
Colgate notes | Army notes | USA Today matchup | Live Stats | 'Gate radio

Lafayette at Holy Cross, 3:30 p.m.: Lafayette's game notes claim:"The teams enter with similar records and are both coming off wins."

Technically, that is true. But Lafayette comes in off a win over hapless Mount Saint Mary's, while HC beat a solid Boston University team its last time out. And Lafayette's .500 record includes two wins over D3 teams and only one win (Mt. St. Mary's) on the road. HC, on the other hand, has played all DI opponents and those DI foes have been far tougher than the ones Lafayette has played, as evidenced by the discrepancy between the two team's strength of schedule numbers (HC 129, Lafayette 293).

Holy Cross ought to win this one, especially at home, where they are 3-1 this season, 56-11 since the start of the 2000-2001 season. But the Crusaders' health woes make any advantage fragile. An injury to leading scorer Kevin Hamilton (16.3 ppg) or 40-minute man Torey Thomas, who is without backup at the point due to Pat Doherty's bad feet, would quickly even the odds for the Leopards.
HC notes | Lafayette notes | USA Today matchup | HC radio
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