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Saturday, January 14, 2006
(Originally posted Friday, 3:38 p.m.)
Patriot League scoreboards
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Holy Cross at Bucknell, 1 p.m.: When these two met for the first time last season, that things between Holy Cross and Bucknell would probably not be settled until the second Friday of March.
That turned out to be true.
A lot of people are saying the same thing this season. At this point, there is no reason to argue against that scenario. But there is also far less evidence to support such prognostication.
Last year the two teams came in with similar records and similar casts. Both teams had almost everyone back from the previous season. Both featured balanced lineups with outstanding backcourts and solid frontcourts.
Even after Bucknell won the rubber match between the two last March, they continued along very similar paths, with both teams scoring big first round upsets in post season play before losing tough second round games.
But the month of May was not kind to Holy Cross. When they held graduation ceremonies in Worcester, they handed diplomas to Nate Lufkin, John Hurley and Greg Kinsey and waved goodbye to three-fifths of the Crusaders' starting lineup.
Bucknell graduated only one player -- Chris Niesz, a key backup to be certain, but a player whose void has been much easier to fill than those played by the Crusaders' trio.
Kinsey, Lufkin and Hurley all played key roles in the Crusaders' lone win in the three games with Bucknell last season. Hurley had 11 points and 9 rebounds in the regular season meeting in Worcester. Kinsey added 10 points and Lufkin had 8 boards.
Without Lufkin and Hurley, Holy Cross' frontcourt has been a shadow of last year's. Kevin Hyland and Tim Clifford have, thus far, proven to have far smaller feet than the shoes they have been asked to fill. Alex Vander Baan, pressed into a starting role at power forward, has been the best of the Crusaders' frontcourt players thus far, but the skinny 6-8 freshman has also had games where he has pretty much disappeared.
Filling Kinsey's spot in the starting lineup was easy enough. Keith Simmons was an all-league pick last year when he played starter-like minutes as HC's sixth man. But nobody on the Crusaders' bench this season has shown the ability to come in and provide a spark like Simmons did last season. Pat Doherty probably would have given the 'Saders a scorer off the bench, but a foot problem has sidelined him for the season, leaving Ralph Willard to rely on freshmen as key reserves.
The combination of Holy Cross' weaker frontcourt and lesser bench significantly alters the equation when you look at the two teams heading into Saturday afternoon's showdown.
Chris McNaughton and Darren Mastropaolo give the Bison a significant edge in the frontcourt. Backups Donald Brown and Tarik Viaer-McClymont add depth upfront that the Crusaders lack.
That edge in bench contributors extends to the Bucknell backcourt, too. Holy Cross fans will argue that Kevin Hamilton, Torey Thomas and Simmons give the Crusaders an edge on Bucknell's starting backcourt of Kevin Bettencourt, Abe Badmus and Charles Lee. They might be right, but any advantage there is slight. With John Griffin and freshman Jason Vegotsky coming off the bench for Bucknell, the backcourt balance seems to shift towards the Bison.
The depth factor cannot be overlooked in a matchup like this. These are two teams that pride themselves on tough defense. Recent games between Bucknell and Holy Cross have been the kind of grind-it-out half court affairs you would expect from teams coached by defense-first guys like Ralph Willard and Pat Flannery.
In three games last season, the two teams combined shot 38 percent from the field. Take away Bucknell's 21-for-40 showing in the league championship game and that figure is even lower. That was the only time one of the two shot better than 41 percent against each other.
Expect more of the same this time around. Despite its up and down start and the many injury problems Holy Cross has faced, the Crusaders are still holding the opposition to 42.2 percent shooting. During their current four-game win streak, that number has dropped to 36.2 percent.
Bucknell's defense has been even tougher, with opponents shooting only 38.7 percent against the Bison. Bucknell has been holding opponents to an average of under 60 points per game.
Make no mistake, it takes more energy to play defense than offense. Which is why Bucknell's depth could give it the edge.
Take a look at Holy Cross' seven losses and you will see what we mean. In five of the seven, the Crusaders were within 3 at the half. They were even ahead by three in one of those games (Mississippi State). In all five they faded after the break, each time in no small part because the opposition shot the ball better in the second half.
Even in its recent wins, three of the four foes (Army being the exception) have shot much better against HC in the second half. In fact, those opponents have shot an average of 16.6 percent better after the break.
The obvious way for Holy Cross to negate that perceived disadvantage is to get out to a fast start. Playing with a lead tends to boost the energy level. Falling behind can be like drinking the bizarro-world version of Red Bull and having to overcome a big early deficit usually results in teams running out of gas down the stretch.
That is not an impossible scenario for the Crusaders. While Bucknell has shown a tendency to start slow in recent games, Holy Cross has been coming out of the blocks like Olympic sprinters. In their last two games, the Crusaders have shot over 60 percent in the first half both nights.
Of course that was against Lafayette and Army. And Bucknell's slow starts have come on the road.
One thing is for certain: somebody's streak ends in this one. Holy Cross has won 15 straight regular season league games. A win would match Navy's league record of 16 in a row. The Bison, on the other hand, have won 17 straight league games at home.
NOTE: updated today, with recaps of the Crusaders' last two games and an insightful preview of the Bucknell-HC game. As always, Coach Ralph's site is a worthy click.
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Navy at Lafayette, 1 p.m.: The three-pointers ought to be flying in Easton, when these two meet. Lafayette has been putting up an average of 24 treys per game. Navy has been shooting almost as many (23.6) in the past three games, a stat traceable to the loss of the Mids top inside threat, Matt Fannin, in the first half of their loss to UMBC.
The Midshipmen's four-guard lineup will not be at as much a disadvantage in the paint against Lafayette as it was in its first two league games (losses to Bucknell and at Lehigh). Likewise, this will be one of the few nights all season the Leopards will not be at a decided disadvantage in the frontcourt.
Despite the lack of scholarships, Lafayette has remained a tough out on its own floor. The 'Pards are 5-2 in Kirby this season and have won their last three home league games, dating back to upsets over American and Lehigh last season that went a long way towards killing both of those teams' hopes of gaining a homecourt edge for the first two rounds of the league tournament.
Navy has a 7-6 record at Lafayette against Fran O'Hanlon teams, but the Midshipmen have won only once there this century and are 1-7 in their last 8 trips to Easton
When these two met in Easton last year, Lafayette came away with the win in a high-scoring (90-80) up-and-down affair. Expect a similar pace this time.
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American at Colgate, 1:30 p.m.: This game should give Jeff Jones a good measure of his club's standing. After opening league play against two teams (Lehigh and Bucknell) that figure to finish in the upper division of the standings, American gets a game against a team it ought to matchup with much better.
Colgate (7-9) was expected to be one of the contenders in the league this season. But thus far the Raiders have been a disappointment. They have lost games to teams like New Hampshire (4-11), Quinnipiac (6-7), Cornell (5-9) and Stony Brook (3-10) and have yet to beat anybody with a .500 record.
American has struggled, too. But AU has played a much stronger schedule than the Raiders.
Given the Eagles dependence on freshmen in key roles, early season problems were expected. The 4-11 Eagles are expected to get better as the season goes on and those freshmen adjust to college ball.
Both teams have strong guards. Both are questionable up front. In fact, the biggest advantage either team probably can claim is the homecourt, which gives an edge to the Raiders, who are 4-1 this season at Cotterell Court. AU is 1-7 on the road.
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Army at Lehigh, 7:30 p.m.: An interesting bit of trivia about Army: Over the past three seasons, 57 percent (4-of-7) of the Black Knights' wins over Division 1 opponents have come on the road, including both of their D-1 victories this season.
That does not mean the offensively challenged Cadets have much of a chance in Stabler Arena, though.
Army, which has lost five in a row, is barley shooting 40 percent from the field on the season (and would be below 40 percent if you take away two games against Division 3 opponents). That does not bode well against a Lehigh team that has held foes to 35.2 percent shooting all season.
Granted, Lehigh has not exactly been lights out either. In fact the Mountain Hawks 39.7 percent shooting, which also includes two games against D-3s, is actually lower than Army's. But that has also come against a much tougher schedule. It also has come without the presence of point guard Joe Knight in 16 of Lehigh's 17 games.
Knight struggled to find his range Wednesday against Navy in his first game back after a 16-game NCAA-imposed suspension, hitting only 2 of 11 shots he took. And over the course of his career, Knight, despite his reputation as a scorer, has actually shot less than 40 percent. But between opponents' needing to pay attention to another scorer on the floor and Knight's knack for finding open men, Lehigh's other guys figure to get a few better looks with him running the point.
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Holy Cross at Bucknell, 1 p.m.: When these two met for the first time last season, that things between Holy Cross and Bucknell would probably not be settled until the second Friday of March.
That turned out to be true.
A lot of people are saying the same thing this season. At this point, there is no reason to argue against that scenario. But there is also far less evidence to support such prognostication.
Last year the two teams came in with similar records and similar casts. Both teams had almost everyone back from the previous season. Both featured balanced lineups with outstanding backcourts and solid frontcourts.
Even after Bucknell won the rubber match between the two last March, they continued along very similar paths, with both teams scoring big first round upsets in post season play before losing tough second round games.
But the month of May was not kind to Holy Cross. When they held graduation ceremonies in Worcester, they handed diplomas to Nate Lufkin, John Hurley and Greg Kinsey and waved goodbye to three-fifths of the Crusaders' starting lineup.
Bucknell graduated only one player -- Chris Niesz, a key backup to be certain, but a player whose void has been much easier to fill than those played by the Crusaders' trio.
Kinsey, Lufkin and Hurley all played key roles in the Crusaders' lone win in the three games with Bucknell last season. Hurley had 11 points and 9 rebounds in the regular season meeting in Worcester. Kinsey added 10 points and Lufkin had 8 boards.
Without Lufkin and Hurley, Holy Cross' frontcourt has been a shadow of last year's. Kevin Hyland and Tim Clifford have, thus far, proven to have far smaller feet than the shoes they have been asked to fill. Alex Vander Baan, pressed into a starting role at power forward, has been the best of the Crusaders' frontcourt players thus far, but the skinny 6-8 freshman has also had games where he has pretty much disappeared.
Filling Kinsey's spot in the starting lineup was easy enough. Keith Simmons was an all-league pick last year when he played starter-like minutes as HC's sixth man. But nobody on the Crusaders' bench this season has shown the ability to come in and provide a spark like Simmons did last season. Pat Doherty probably would have given the 'Saders a scorer off the bench, but a foot problem has sidelined him for the season, leaving Ralph Willard to rely on freshmen as key reserves.
The combination of Holy Cross' weaker frontcourt and lesser bench significantly alters the equation when you look at the two teams heading into Saturday afternoon's showdown.
Chris McNaughton and Darren Mastropaolo give the Bison a significant edge in the frontcourt. Backups Donald Brown and Tarik Viaer-McClymont add depth upfront that the Crusaders lack.
That edge in bench contributors extends to the Bucknell backcourt, too. Holy Cross fans will argue that Kevin Hamilton, Torey Thomas and Simmons give the Crusaders an edge on Bucknell's starting backcourt of Kevin Bettencourt, Abe Badmus and Charles Lee. They might be right, but any advantage there is slight. With John Griffin and freshman Jason Vegotsky coming off the bench for Bucknell, the backcourt balance seems to shift towards the Bison.
The depth factor cannot be overlooked in a matchup like this. These are two teams that pride themselves on tough defense. Recent games between Bucknell and Holy Cross have been the kind of grind-it-out half court affairs you would expect from teams coached by defense-first guys like Ralph Willard and Pat Flannery.
In three games last season, the two teams combined shot 38 percent from the field. Take away Bucknell's 21-for-40 showing in the league championship game and that figure is even lower. That was the only time one of the two shot better than 41 percent against each other.
Expect more of the same this time around. Despite its up and down start and the many injury problems Holy Cross has faced, the Crusaders are still holding the opposition to 42.2 percent shooting. During their current four-game win streak, that number has dropped to 36.2 percent.
Bucknell's defense has been even tougher, with opponents shooting only 38.7 percent against the Bison. Bucknell has been holding opponents to an average of under 60 points per game.
Make no mistake, it takes more energy to play defense than offense. Which is why Bucknell's depth could give it the edge.
Take a look at Holy Cross' seven losses and you will see what we mean. In five of the seven, the Crusaders were within 3 at the half. They were even ahead by three in one of those games (Mississippi State). In all five they faded after the break, each time in no small part because the opposition shot the ball better in the second half.
Even in its recent wins, three of the four foes (Army being the exception) have shot much better against HC in the second half. In fact, those opponents have shot an average of 16.6 percent better after the break.
The obvious way for Holy Cross to negate that perceived disadvantage is to get out to a fast start. Playing with a lead tends to boost the energy level. Falling behind can be like drinking the bizarro-world version of Red Bull and having to overcome a big early deficit usually results in teams running out of gas down the stretch.
That is not an impossible scenario for the Crusaders. While Bucknell has shown a tendency to start slow in recent games, Holy Cross has been coming out of the blocks like Olympic sprinters. In their last two games, the Crusaders have shot over 60 percent in the first half both nights.
Of course that was against Lafayette and Army. And Bucknell's slow starts have come on the road.
One thing is for certain: somebody's streak ends in this one. Holy Cross has won 15 straight regular season league games. A win would match Navy's league record of 16 in a row. The Bison, on the other hand, have won 17 straight league games at home.
NOTE: updated today, with recaps of the Crusaders' last two games and an insightful preview of the Bucknell-HC game. As always, Coach Ralph's site is a worthy click.
| | | |
Navy at Lafayette, 1 p.m.: The three-pointers ought to be flying in Easton, when these two meet. Lafayette has been putting up an average of 24 treys per game. Navy has been shooting almost as many (23.6) in the past three games, a stat traceable to the loss of the Mids top inside threat, Matt Fannin, in the first half of their loss to UMBC.
The Midshipmen's four-guard lineup will not be at as much a disadvantage in the paint against Lafayette as it was in its first two league games (losses to Bucknell and at Lehigh). Likewise, this will be one of the few nights all season the Leopards will not be at a decided disadvantage in the frontcourt.
Despite the lack of scholarships, Lafayette has remained a tough out on its own floor. The 'Pards are 5-2 in Kirby this season and have won their last three home league games, dating back to upsets over American and Lehigh last season that went a long way towards killing both of those teams' hopes of gaining a homecourt edge for the first two rounds of the league tournament.
Navy has a 7-6 record at Lafayette against Fran O'Hanlon teams, but the Midshipmen have won only once there this century and are 1-7 in their last 8 trips to Easton
When these two met in Easton last year, Lafayette came away with the win in a high-scoring (90-80) up-and-down affair. Expect a similar pace this time.
| | | |
American at Colgate, 1:30 p.m.: This game should give Jeff Jones a good measure of his club's standing. After opening league play against two teams (Lehigh and Bucknell) that figure to finish in the upper division of the standings, American gets a game against a team it ought to matchup with much better.
Colgate (7-9) was expected to be one of the contenders in the league this season. But thus far the Raiders have been a disappointment. They have lost games to teams like New Hampshire (4-11), Quinnipiac (6-7), Cornell (5-9) and Stony Brook (3-10) and have yet to beat anybody with a .500 record.
American has struggled, too. But AU has played a much stronger schedule than the Raiders.
Given the Eagles dependence on freshmen in key roles, early season problems were expected. The 4-11 Eagles are expected to get better as the season goes on and those freshmen adjust to college ball.
Both teams have strong guards. Both are questionable up front. In fact, the biggest advantage either team probably can claim is the homecourt, which gives an edge to the Raiders, who are 4-1 this season at Cotterell Court. AU is 1-7 on the road.
| | | |
Army at Lehigh, 7:30 p.m.: An interesting bit of trivia about Army: Over the past three seasons, 57 percent (4-of-7) of the Black Knights' wins over Division 1 opponents have come on the road, including both of their D-1 victories this season.
That does not mean the offensively challenged Cadets have much of a chance in Stabler Arena, though.
Army, which has lost five in a row, is barley shooting 40 percent from the field on the season (and would be below 40 percent if you take away two games against Division 3 opponents). That does not bode well against a Lehigh team that has held foes to 35.2 percent shooting all season.
Granted, Lehigh has not exactly been lights out either. In fact the Mountain Hawks 39.7 percent shooting, which also includes two games against D-3s, is actually lower than Army's. But that has also come against a much tougher schedule. It also has come without the presence of point guard Joe Knight in 16 of Lehigh's 17 games.
Knight struggled to find his range Wednesday against Navy in his first game back after a 16-game NCAA-imposed suspension, hitting only 2 of 11 shots he took. And over the course of his career, Knight, despite his reputation as a scorer, has actually shot less than 40 percent. But between opponents' needing to pay attention to another scorer on the floor and Knight's knack for finding open men, Lehigh's other guys figure to get a few better looks with him running the point.
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