Hard to tell a lot about Lehigh from Saturday’s win over Lafayette.
At least not when it comes to Lehigh’s offense. The Mountain Hawks shot the lights out in Kirby – 31 for 47, 9 of 18 at the arc.
That is not Lehigh. At least not the Lehigh that showed up for most of the other 19 games the Hawks have played. Even with the boost from the Lafayette game, the Mountain Hawks are seventh in the eight-team league in field goal percentage (40.6 percent).
It’s defense, not offense, on which the Hawks hang their hats. Lehigh ranks second in the league defensively in both scoring and field goal percentage.
They showed some of that defense against Lafayette, holding the Leopards to 37.5 percent from the field.
One thing Bucknell is likely to notice when they watch tape of that game would be the play of Lafayette’s Andrei Capusan.
Capusan, a skinny, 6-8 forward put up 18 points against Lehigh’s slow-afoot bigs. Neither Jason Mgebroff nor Mike Fischman could guard Capusan. When they played off of Capusan, he would step back and drop a short jumper over their heads. When Lehigh tried to play him tighter, Capusan repeatedly beat them to the rim with his quickness.
McNaughton’s game is a lot like Capusan’s, except McNaughton is more skilled and, at 6-11, has more of a presence in the post. Perhaps the biggest improvement in his game this season is the mid-range jumper. McNaughton has even hit a couple of treys.
It’s an impossible matchup for Lehigh, who will have to double hard on McNaughton.
Bucknell’s Darren Mastropaolo lacks McNaughton’s range, but has shown an ability to finish around the basket. He is strong enough to play the Lehigh big guys and his quickness is an advantage against either of them.
“Bucknell might have a little bit of an advantage inside,” said Colgate coach Emmett Davis, who lost to both teams last week.
When Lehigh goes with Bryan White, Bucknell can counter with Donald Brown, who can match White’s athleticism.
In the backcourt, they are fairly even. Lehigh can put Joe Knight, Jose Olivero and Kyle Neptune on the floor together. That is a good as any backcourt in the league, at least offensively. But Bucknell’s trio of Abe Badmus, Kevin Bettencourt and Charles Lee is pretty good, too, and might be stronger defensively.
The biggest difference between the two backcourts might be in terms of expectations. For Lehigh to knock off Bucknell, it needs a great night from its guards. Bucknell’s front court gives it more options, a greater margin of error.
That margin of error, ultimately, seems to be the biggest difference between Bucknell and the rest of the league.
Can Bucknell be beaten? Sure, but for most teams in the league to even have a chance against the Bison, they need to bring their A-plus game and hope Bucknell doesn’t. Lehigh, for example, will have a tough time beating Bucknell without a big night from Knight and Olivero. Holy Cross would need Keith Simmons, Kevin Hamilton and Torey Thomas all on top of their games.
Bucknell, on the other hand, has shown it can win a lot of different ways. It can beat you inside with McNaughton, outside with Lee and Bettencourt. It can beat you with its defense, or with its bench.
As much credit as Lehigh deserves for its defense, it is worth noting that Bucknell is holding its opponents to almost 5 points per game fewer than Lehigh. Opponents are shooting 37 percent against BU, almost 2 points better (38.8 percent) against Lehigh.
Given the far tougher schedule Bucknell has played, those are significant differences. In fact, to get a better guage of how the two stack up against similar opposition, take a look at the conference games only stats.
In five league games, Bucknell has held opponents to 43.8 points per game. Lehigh is 12 points back, actually third in the league behind Holy Cross at 56 points allowed per game (HC is at 55.5). In field goal percentage defense, Bucknell’s opponents have shot 29.9 percent, Lehigh’s foes 38 percent.
Factor in that Bucknell has already played Holy Cross, which has the highest scoring offense in conference games, while Lehigh played Army, the second-lowest scoring team, and the difference looks even bigger.
Does this mean Bucknell is a lock at Lehigh Wednesday night? Hardly.
Foul trouble can change the basic equation in a hurry. Few teams seem to get as kind a whistle at home as Lehigh. In seven home games against Division I opponents, Lehigh has gone to the line an average of 26.6 times per game. The opposition has shot just 16 per game in those contests.
Even with Lehigh shooting a league-low 65 percent from the stripe, 10 extra trips to the foul line can be worth almost 7 extra points. That is a significant number in a low scoring game, which Lehigh’s defense almost always assures.
That advantage can compound if the fouls are called on the wrong people for Bucknell. If the Bison have to play without McNaughton for long stretches of time due to foul problems, Lehigh’s chances are multiplied.
Lehigh took offense when, after their win Saturday at Lafayette, someone asked them about the challenge of facing the league’s two best teams back-to-back this week. The Mountain Hawks made it clear they feel they should be mentioned right along with the Bison and Holy Cross when people handicap the league.
That might be true, but we won’t know that for sure until the week ends. On paper, Bucknell looks a notch or two ahead of the rest of the pack, with Lehigh likely to battle Holy Cross for the right to host the No. 2 seed pod in the postseason.